Lake Mead Is Drying Up Far Too Fast
The largest reservoir in the U.S. is disappearing rapidly
I’m a huge Fallout fan. I’ve brought that up before, I’m sure.
New Vegas is one of my favourite games of all time — and I would be playing it every day if I could get the darn thing to run on my system without crashing every two seconds.
It’s a fantastic RPG experience even by today’s standards, but it is old as dirt and unstable as hell.
As you might guess from the name if you aren’t already familiar, Fallout: New Vegas is set in post-apocalyptic Nevada, what they call the ‘Mojave Wasteland.’ It spans from Goodsprings all the way to Lake Mead, Hoover Dam and Las Vegas, the remains of which are the titular New Vegas of the game world.
The main conflict of the game is between several major powers who all want to claim Hoover Dam and the electricity it could generate if they can get it up and running again, as well as the fresh, clean water source of Lake Mead.
New Vegas is set in 2281, 200 years or so past the nuclear war of 2077. And there’s a lot I could say about Fallout and how unnervingly familiar the lore of the Pre-War America feels right now. And I have:
Seriously, play the games and watch the show. It’s well worth it!
But at this point the most unbelievable element of the games is the fact that, in 2281, there is enough water left in Lake Mead to keep the Hoover Dam at operating capacity.
Because as of right now, in 2026, climate change has brought the water levels in Lake Mead all the way down to 1,043 feet above MSL, or Mean Sea Level. The full capacity of Lake Mead sits around 1,229 feet.
That means that as of current measurements, it is 180 feet below what it ought to be. The level of the lake itself has dropped that far.
The reservoir is under 30% capacity.
Lake Mead is the largest fresh water reservoir in the United States, and it supports a population of over 25 million people, and gods know how many agricultural centers across multiple western states.
Between that water loss and the fact that the headwaters of the Colorado River — another major water source that over 30 million people depend on — are drying up, drought and aridification are having a severe impact on people’s livelihoods and survival.
The Fallout games are often based on the need for securing clean water and other such resources in the post-post apocalypse, but it never reckons with the idea that those resources simply won’t be there.
At the current rate of fall, it’ll only be a few years, maybe a couple of decades if we’re lucky before these water sources just don’t exist anymore. At ‘Dead Pool’ level, where the water level drops too low to flow through dams, those power sources will vanish too.
Tens of millions of people will lose their fresh water sources and entire regions of the U.S. will be left without localized fresh water. You can stave that off for a while by transporting and delivering water from afar, but that’s not sustainable for any length of time.
Nevermind the huge loss of electricity, requiring massive infrastructure overhaul. Losing the dams wouldn’t totally wipe it out or anything, but you’d be looking at rolling blackouts and instability for parts of the year. Mostly in marginalized neighbourhoods, obviously.
And that’s in the high heat of that region. Imagine a summer of rolling blackouts in Arizona, Nevada and California. Woof.
We’re talking about a mass migration, parts of the country being unlivable and forcing people to relocate to better climes with hospitable conditions.
This is the reality of climate change. We’re here. I don’t know where we’re going to be tomorrow.
Solidarity wins.
You're right. We're there. Those states are fighting in the courts over water rights as we write about this.
I read a book a few months ago titled, The Water Knife by Paolo Bacigalupi. It is very good. Gritty and full of intrigue about a dystopian future United States without any water in the south west and the fights to control what little there is.
The bottom line, is that we are here. It won't be much longer before the Colorado River dries up to the point of un-useability and they will have to come up with alternative power generation methods. Which won't happen in time to save all those millions of people and industries from lights out.
There's already an out-migration taking place and this will only accelerate it. If we think the American empire is in decline now, wait until large areas of the south west become barren desert, where only the hardiest can survive. Places like Phoenix and Tucson will become ghost cities when the water finally runs out for good. it's coming and this super El Niño even is only going to bring it on that much faster.